Monday, January 22, 2018 / by Vanessa Saunders
CoreLogic, NAR at odds over new tax plan's real estate pricing implications
A farmer and a city slicker are leaning on a fence in the country looking at a pasture of cows. The city slicker asks, "What does it mean when all the cows are standing up like that?"
The farmer answered, "Means it's gonna rain."
The city slicker thought for a moment and asked, "What if all the cows were lying down?"
The farmer answered knowingly, "Means it's gonna shine."
The city slicker then asked, "What if half the cows are standing up and half are lying down?"
The farmer answered just as knowingly, "Means half of 'em are wrong."
Every month, CoreLogic releases its Home Price Insights Report. In that report, they forecast where they believe residential real estate prices will be in twelve months. Below is a map, broken down by state, reflecting how home values are forecast to change by the end of 2018 using data from the most recent report.
As we can see, CoreLogic projects an increase in home values in 49 of 50 states, and Washington, DC (there was insufficient data for HI). Nationwide, they see home prices increasing by 4.2%.
But recently, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) conducted their own analysis to determine the impact the new tax code may have on home values. The NAR’s analysis:
“…estimated how home prices will change in the upcoming year for each state, considering the impact of the new tax law and the momentum of jobs and housing inventory.”
Here is a map based on NAR’s analysis:
According to NAR, the new tax code will have an impact on home values across the country. However, the effect will be much less significant than what some originally thought.
I guess half of 'em are wrong...